By Eric Choi
March 12, 2022
On the first day (February 24th, 2022) of President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, his generals and troops followed a textbook strategy for land invasions. They attacked the country’s military installations and air defense systems with missiles launched from the air, sea and land, seeking to take ownership of the skies, and sped forces to Kyiv, the capital, with the goal of decapitating the government of the democratically elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
But then, things slowed. It is one thing to cross the border of another country with tanks and artillery, protected by warplanes above, Pentagon officials and analysts say. It is another thing entirely to lay siege to cities and an army populated by people willing to put their lives on the line to protect what they view as their sovereign right to self-determination.
Within a day of entering Ukraine, Russian forces lost some momentum, senior American and British officials said, as Ukrainian fighters mounted a resistance. No population centers had been taken, a senior Defense Department official told reporters at the Pentagon on Friday. Nor had Russia yet managed to achieve air superiority over Ukraine, partly because the Ukrainians are using mobile systems and partly because Russian missiles have hit old air defense sites, which could show a flaw in Russia’s intelligence. The Ukrainian air defense and missile defense systems were degraded, he said, but the country’s air force was still flying planes and denying air access to Russia.
In addition, officials said, Russia was conducting most of its initial operations during the day, suggesting that its ability to fight at night — a hallmark of the American military — was less effective. “Ukrainian armed forces continue to offer strong resistance,” said Lt. Gen. Jim Hockenhull, the British chief of defense intelligence.
That said, Pentagon officials warned that Russia had sent in only one-third of the 150,000 to 190,000 troops it had massed at Ukraine’s borders, so Moscow could intensify pressure at any time. Military officials said Russia was still in the initial phases of an operation that could take two to three weeks to seize most of the country.
Officials said Russia had begun an amphibious assault from the Sea of Azov, near Mariupol, in the south. Thousands of Russian naval infantry are coming ashore there, with military officials assessing that the plan is to move toward the city. The Russian military, with its decisive edge in cyberwarfare, tanks, heavy weaponry, missiles, fighter planes, warships, and sheer numbers, dwarfs that of Ukraine.
러시아 푸틴 대통령이 우크라이나에 진격하던 첫 날, 러시아 군은 전쟁 교과서에 나오는 정석대로 우크라이나 키에우를 공격했다. 공중/바다/땅 모두를 이용해서 공격하며 러시아 군대는 우크라이나를 곧 점령하고 우크라이나의 대통령인 젤렌스키를 제거할 수 있을 듯 보였다.
하지만 상황은 예상밖으로 진행되기 시작했다. 전쟁에서 무기로 하는 전쟁과 이미 시민들이 거주하고 있는 도시를 공격하는 것, 특히 그 시민들이 그 도시를 지키려고 결사적으로 싸우고 있는 도시를 점령하는 전혀 다른 이야기로 펜타콘(미국 국방부) 관계자는 말한다.
우크라이나 점령 바로 다음날 부터 러시아 군대는 기회를 잃어가기 시작했다. 인구 밀접지역은 어떤 지역도 차지 하지 못했다. 다만 러시아 군대는 오래된 방어기지 정도를 얻었는데, 이것 역시 러시아 군대가 공격 지점을 잘못 예측했다는 것만 더 보여줄 뿐이었다. 우크라이나의 항공 미사일 시스템은 타격을 받은게 맞지만, 러시아의 공격이 치명적이지는 않았다고 군사전문가들을 말하고 있다.
특히 이 전문가들은 러시아 군대가 주로 낮에만 공격을 하고 있는 점. 밤에 하는 공격이 거의 성공하지 못하고 있는 점도 지적한다. 영국 군사관계자는 “우크라이나 방어군은 상당히 강력한 저항력을 보여주고 있다)고 말한다.
하지만 펜타콘 관례자는 러시아가 아직 우크라이나 국경에 배치한 15만명에서 19만명의 군인들 중 약 1/3만 우크라이나에 보낸만큼, 러시아는 2-3주에 걸쳐 계속 우크라이나를 점령하는 점령전쟁을 진행해 갈 것이라고 예상한다. 또한 러시아가 우크라이나 남쪽 아조브 해안을 점령할 것으로 예상하며, 전력상 러시아가 우크라이나를 압도한다고 말하고 있다.
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